Cameras: a different barrier to entry

This is a rehash of a post I originally wrote in a DPReview forum.

The topic of the discussion was whether the camera phones would change how many people would decide what they have is not enough and become interested in getting a more advanced camera. This was my take:

I think the question now is: Will the model of how people get into "serious" (i.e. using dedicated gear) photography be similar to what was in film days? What motivations people had then vs. what will they be in the future?

I don't have much to go on with this but my view is that the motivations will be very different:

Back in film days the path from taking the photo to getting it (in form of a print or slide) was similar for casual photographers and enthusiasts: you put the film in, took the photos, delivered the film at a photo store and got the pictures back a few hours or days later. If you got really serious you could try this at home, too, but for starters the transition was just by buying a different camera.

Nowadays and in the near future the transition path is very different. You start with a connected, app-enabled device that covers the whole workflow from taking the photo to publishing it or even ordering a photo book. If you are unsatisfied with image quality (and that begins to be a big if) and/or if you want to influence the viewing angle (perhaps more likely), depth of field, etc. then you have to compromise. That compromise isn't just on the camera size (which to some extent also happened with film) but right now also on post-take capabilities. Very few cameras offer immediate editing and/or sharing options of any form at the moment.

The above made me realize that the problem really is that the barrier to entry to enthusiast photography is much higher at the moment. That barrier is not related to gear prices, at least not right now. It is in the compromises you have to make. I don't even see them as compromises, I need a desktop computer with big screen to get to the results I want anyway, and it is faster and gives me more control than dropping the roll at Kodak somewhere in town and come back for prints an hour later. New arrivals will be used to tap-tap-slide-tap-push-to-Facebook-right-away and will initially get frustrated by the hassle. That just might be a big showstopper.

So I think even as far more people will be introduced to photography and may take some non-casual interest in it, the percentage of those who even consider the move to dedicated cameras may drop.